26 July 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Option Expiry, FOMC Tomorrow

“It was written I should be loyal to the nightmare of my choice.”

Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness

"Judge them by their works. What have they done for mankind beyond the spinning of airy fancies, and the mistaking of their own shadows for gods?"

Jack London, The Iron Heel

That first quote is for Bernie Sanders, and that second sums the substance of the Fed.

I think that the gold and silver prices got pegged to the price that pleased those who wanted to take the most out of the pockets of the non-professional (directional) options players.

Tomorrow will be the FOMC, and we may see a move, depending on just what the Fed decides to do.

I can see them doing nothing, or raising 25 bp and getting it over with.  I put it at almost 50-50.  They are running out of time to act from a practical standpoint, but the financial system is so shaky that they are paralyzed by fear of doing anything that will cast a finger of blame in their direction.

I will not go into all the reasons, but it does not have much to do with the real economy.  They are preoccupied with managing their policy options against the risks from their financial asset bubbles, as well as the needs and desires of their real constituents, the Banks.

Tonight Bill 'Slick Willy' Clinton will be speaking to the Democratic Convention.  It would be a real stunner if he was booed, even sporadically.  For all his shortcomings and flaws, he is a very good speaker and has a following amongst the hard core of the Party establishment.

I won't be watching.  To put it bluntly, Slick makes me sick.   And I am already there with both of the presumptive nominees.  It is going to be a long four years ahead.

There will be a lot of political kabuki theatre tonight.  I suspect that Bernie Sanders will release his delegates, at least in the Vermont delegation, in order to try and put Hillary over the top as the nominee in a show of unity.

His constituents and volunteers seem to have been roundly let down, if not betrayed.   Especially in the light of the manner in which Hillary corrupted the DNC and bent it to her will, the voters and the law be damned, and the clumsy propaganda she put out to try and distract away from it.

I am putting my money on karma, but that takes time.

Oh well, politics is a dirty business.

At least gold does not tarnish easily.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Earnings After the Bell, FOMC Tomorrow

Stocks traded on pretty decent volume today, despite the lack of tangible price action.

I suspect we were seeing a lot of positioning ahead of some of the big tech earnings results tonight, such as AAPL, as well as the FOMC decision on interest rates at 2 PM tomorrow.

Stocks seem fully valued here, and vulnerable to a reversal.

If the Fed does raise 25 bp it will most likely be benign to our sluggish real economy, but it might provide a jolt to the bubbles in financial assets which they have, once again, created.

Have a pleasant evening.

How a New Vision Rose From the Chaos of the Democratic Convention of 1924

It Was a Tough Opening Night in Philadelphia...

Heavy lies the crown...

25 July 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiry and FOMC

There will be a precious metals option expiration on the Comex tomorrow, and the FOMC will be making their rate decision known at 2 PM on Wednesday.

We will also be getting some additional Q2 GDP economic data on Friday.

There are some broader comments about current events in the SP 500 and NDX commentary below.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Peak Hubris

"I don't understand people...who talk about us as being in decline, and who act as though we are not yet the greatest country that has ever been on the face of the Earth for all of history!"

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 25 July 2016

How can we possibly have any problems, except for malcontents, naysayers, and whiners?  We are the greatest!

The Democratic establishment's lack of understanding of what a large portion of the public has been saying and thinking during this entire election cycle and beyond is both remarkable and yet understandable, given the insular bubble of easy money, crony capitalism, and endless favoritism in which their candidate and their pampered protégés exist.

This utter disconnect from the public is why some liberal establishment figureheads can write columns in the New York Times suggesting that all must be well everywhere, because things are great in the affluent bubble-land of the Upper West Side of Manhattan, or in Silicon Valley.  And then go on to imply that anyone who may disagree, who may be protesting and working for meaningful reform, is ignorant or dishonest.

This is no incidental thing; it is systemic.  It was revealed in the emails and the attitude of the DNC establishment towards the entire Bernie Sanders campaign, which was a remarkable manifestation of a popular will to reform. As was the Trump movement against the establishment GOP insiders.

We have been hearing this sort of nonsense for some time now from the establishment cronies of both parties.  Like all elites who have become insular and out of touch throughout history, the fortunate few have stopped listening to anything outside of their own circles, and have little attention or tolerance for dissent from their group thought.

And I suspect that the DNC power players, led by their poster child HRC, would like to take the support of the progressive and reform factions for granted, counting on fear of Trump to beat them into line.

Does anyone doubt that the very comfortable Wall Street wing of the Democrats will eventually toss the progressives and reformers under the bus, and try to garner more endorsements from disaffected establishment Republicans and their big money sponsors?   After all, this has been Obama's modus operandi for the past eight years.

One gets the distinct impression that political party powers are not particularly interested in real reform, or equal justice, or relief to the many disadvantaged from an increasingly corrupt and broken system.

Rather, they want to climb on board the upper decks and get a piece of the action from the existing dirty, rotten system for themselves.  They may talk the talk of justice and compassion, but in their hearts their guiding principle is 'greed is good.'

Let's see if that overreach gets an unexpected reaction, sooner rather than later. But as some point there will be one.

And make no mistake about it, Trump may be more of a wild card, an unknown entity in the political arena, but he has a long history that suggests that he will be no better, no different, and perhaps worse in the short term.

This is a year of poor choices, and that is a direct outcome of a broken, inwardly focused political system dominated by captive institutions and by Big Money.

And rather than an appeal to reform, and progress, and real growth, what we are instead served up is bread and circuses, and a heavy handed attempt to rule by fear rather than by the reform, which people so desperately crave, with their informed consent.

Stocks caught a lift today after an edgy bout of light selling in the early trading, as all eyes are on the economic news, but especially that instrument of institutional privilege, the FOMC which will be making its announcement on Wednesday.

Have a pleasant evening.