28 January 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Fear Trade and The Sickness Unto Death


“The greatest hazard of all, losing one’s self, can occur very quietly in the world, as if it were nothing at all.  No other loss can occur so quietly; any other loss - an arm, a leg, five dollars, a wife, etc. - is sure to be noticed...

What we call worldliness simply consists of such people who, if one may so express it, pawn themselves to the world.”

Søren Kierkegaard, The Sickness Unto Death
 
 
There seems to be a vacuum in the world economy.  And it is probably being created by the black holes of economic policy and monetary thought that are centered in Washington, New York, Berlin, Tokyo, and London.
 
Speaking of lukewarm, ambiguous shit, here is the 'money shot' from the Fed statement today:
"This assessment will take into account:
  1. a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions,
  2. indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and
  3. readings on financial and international developments."
The individual reactions to the statement depended on which one of these three measures you chose to focus.

If it was number 1, the report seemed hawkish, because earlier the Fed referred to 'labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate.'  Between that and rosy expectations for GDP, and some see the Fed moving as early as June.

If it was number 2, the statement was dovish.   Inflation is hardly an issue, with disinflation and downright deflation being more of an issue.  And certainly the dollar needs no help from interest rates.

And if it was number 3, you joined the mad rush into Treasuries, taking the 30 Year down to a record low.  It holds out the fear/hope of international troubles with the dollar being waved as a safe haven. 
 
By the end of the day it was the fear trade that prevailed in stocks and bonds.
 
And you might wonder that gold did not participate in the safe haven move.  And unless you have been listening to what I have been saying here, you will not understand it.  The Western central banks are loathe to allow gold and silver to run free, because it would hamper their fiat financial engineering.

That their schemes will collapse on their own is probably a good bet.  But they are more than willing to expend their energies on hiding their mistakes in the meantime, rather than fixing the real problems.
 
No wonder the vast portion of the world that is not among the 'attendant nations' to the New American Century is recoiling in disgust from the antics that the Fed and its Banks have been playing with the dollar.

In summary, to paraphrase Samuel Johnson, 'The Fed is an ass.' 

But like most of their financial sector, I do not think it to be a benign influence on the real economy.  The Fed, and the banking corporations that have risen up around it, are like a cankerous sore, an abscess that needs to be lanced.

Like the privileged class has learned from their earliest days, when you have screwed a good thing up royally through your own greed, pride, and serial stupidity, the thing to do is lie, cheat, and steal and above all, lawyer up, sow confusion, and then deny knowing anything about everything.  As a matter of fact, you are not sure that you were even there, or what words mean anymore.

Have a pleasant evening.


 

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Policy Errors by Hacks, Par Excellence


Please see the gold/silver commentary above for my take on the FOMC statement.

Some called it a 'balanced statement.'

I considered it a muddied statement, with a little something for everyone.  This is not due to some serene objective wisdom on the part of the Fed.  Rather, they were purposely vague and misdirecting, in order to keep their options open, because they have no idea what they hell is going one or what they are doing.   As a default they are serving their masters in the Banks, that's all. 

They are, in the vernacular, 'scared shitless.'    And well they should be, since they are standing on a wreckage of their own devices.  And I doubt that there will be rooms for them at the compound in Paraguay.

By the end of the day, the fear trade dominated bonds and equities.  Stocks went out on their lows.
 
Perhaps some of the financial results from puffballs like Facebook will help to distract Wall Street from the gathering storm.

Changing the subject from vacuous statements by hacks about economic realities and policy that miss the mark, here is a link to an open letter that I posted today from the new Greek PM Alex Tsipras. It says much about modern economics and public policy that is worth noting well. You may read it here.

The Fed, and the fiscal authorities commonly known as policy making politicians in consultation with the corporate paymasters, are not only proving to be ineffective in nurturing The Recovery.

They are almost sociopathic in their pursuit of further misery and oppression of the public by propping up a financial system that is the cause of many of our current woes, because it is shamefully corrupt. And they wrap it all in bunkum, secrecy, and lies.

This will not end well. I just hope that out of all of this comes a renewal of the freedom, and a change in our priorities. But in the short term, as Yeats put it so well, 'the best lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity.'

Have a pleasant evening.
 
 
 
 
 

The Fed's Forecasting Methodology: Making Astrology and Weathermen Look Good

 

An Open Letter About Austerity, Debt, and Public Policy from Alex Tsipras


As we read this, let us keep in mind that the Banks were mired in bad debts that were created by their fraudulent activities and speculation, and that they were massively bailed out by the people, in the most gentle and accommodating of terms if not outright subsidies.

And now they would prey on those who have saved them, seeking to extend more debts, and harsher terms, not only to Greece but to the poor and middle class of their own countries, in order to make them like slaves to unresolvable burdens, stripped of freedom and assets by a corrupt judiciary and politicians.

Even now, QE is being extended to buy unpayable and overvalued debts from the Banks, to free their balance sheets, and to give them more power to financially oppress the public.

"Most of you, dear Handesblatt readers, will have formed a preconception of what this article is about before you actually read it. I am imploring you not to succumb to such preconceptions. Prejudice was never a good guide, especially during periods when an economic crisis reinforces stereotypes and breeds bigotry, nationalism, even violence.

In 2010, the Greek state ceased to be able to service its debt. Unfortunately, European officials decided to pretend that this problem could be overcome by means of the largest loan in history on condition of fiscal austerity that would, with mathematical precision, shrink the national income from which both new and old loans must be paid. An insolvency problem was thus dealt with as if it were a case of illiquidity.

In other words, Europe adopted the tactics of the least reputable bankers who refuse to acknowledge bad loans, preferring to grant new ones to the insolvent entity so as to pretend that the original loan is performing while extending the bankruptcy into the future. Nothing more than common sense was required to see that the application of the 'extend and pretend' tactic would lead my country to a tragic state. That instead of Greece's stabilization, Europe was creating the circumstances for a self-reinforcing crisis that undermines the foundations of Europe itself.

My party, and I personally, disagreed fiercely with the May 2010 loan agreement not because you, the citizens of Germany, did not give us enough money but because you gave us much, much more than you should have and our government accepted far, far more than it had a right to. Money that would, in any case, neither help the people of Greece (as it was being thrown into the black hole of an unsustainable debt) nor prevent the ballooning of Greek government debt, at great expense to the Greek and German taxpayer.

Indeed, even before a full year had gone by, from 2011 onwards, our predictions were confirmed. The combination of gigantic new loans and stringent government spending cuts that depressed incomes not only failed to rein the debt in but, also, punished the weakest of citizens turning people who had hitherto been living a measured, modest life into paupers and beggars, denying them above all else their dignity. The collapse of incomes pushed thousands of firms into bankruptcy boosting the oligopolistic power of surviving large firms. Thus, prices have been falling but more slowly than wages and salaries, pushing down overall demand for goods and services and crushing nominal incomes while debts continue their inexorable rise. In this setting, the deficit of hope accelerated uncontrollably and, before we knew it, the 'serpent's egg' hatched – the result being neo-Nazis patrolling our neighbourhoods, spreading their message of hatred.

Despite the evident failure of the 'extend and pretend' logic, it is still being implemented to this day. The second Greek 'bailout', enacted in the Spring of 2012, added another huge loan on the weakened shoulders of the Greek taxpayers, "haircut" our social security funds, and financed a ruthless new kleptocracy.

Respected commentators have been referring of recent to Greece's stabilization, even of signs of growth. Alas, 'Greek-covery' is but a mirage which we must put to rest as soon as possible. The recent modest rise of real GDP, to the tune of 0.7%, signals not the end of recession (as has been proclaimed) but, rather, its continuation. Think about it: The same official sources report, for the same quarter, an inflation rate of -1.80%, i.e. deflation. Which means that the 0.7% rise in real GDP was due to a negative growth rate of nominal GDP! In other words, all that happened is that prices declined faster than nominal national income. Not exactly a cause for proclaiming the end of six years of recession!

Allow me to submit to you that this sorry attempt to recruit a new version of 'Greek statistics', in order to declare the ongoing Greek crisis over, is an insult to all Europeans who, at long last, deserve the truth about Greece and about Europe. So, let me be frank: Greece's debt is currently unsustainable and will never be serviced, especially while Greece is being subjected to continuous fiscal waterboarding. The insistence in these dead-end policies, and in the denial of simple arithmetic, costs the German taxpayer dearly while, at once, condemning to a proud European nation to permanent indignity. What is even worse: In this manner, before long the Germans turn against the Greeks, the Greeks against the Germans and, unsurprisingly, the European Ideal suffers catastrophic losses.

Germany, and in particular the hard-working German workers, have nothing to fear from a SYRIZA victory. The opposite holds. Our task is not to confront our partners. It is not to secure larger loans or, equivalently, the right to higher deficits. Our target is, rather, the country's stabilization, balanced budgets and, of course, the end of the grand squeeze of the weaker Greek taxpayers in the context of a loan agreement that is simply unenforceable. We are committed to end 'extend and pretend' logic not against German citizens but with a view to the mutual advantages for all Europeans.

Dear readers, I understand that, behind your 'demand' that our government fulfills all of its 'contractual obligations' hides the fear that, if you let us Greeks some breathing space, we shall return to our bad, old ways. I acknowledge this anxiety. However, let me say that it was not SYRIZA that incubated the cleptocracy which today pretends to strive for 'reforms', as long as these 'reforms' do not affect their ill-gotten privileges. We are ready and willing to introduce major reforms for which we are now seeking a mandate to implement from the Greek electorate, naturally in collaboration with our European partners.

Our task is to bring about a European New Deal within which our people can breathe, create and live in dignity.

A great opportunity for Europe is about to be born in Greece on 25th January. An opportunity Europe can ill afford to miss.


 
Anti-Austerity Party Gathers Support in Spain

Two Pictures From Greece


"Greece leaves behind catastrophic austerity, it leaves behind fear and authoritarianism, it leaves behind five years of humiliation and anguish."

Alexis Tsipras


"I have nothing to ask except that you move aside, so that you may not, by blocking the sunlight, steal from me what you cannot give."

Diogenes

Therese Duncan, Reaching Arms, The Parthenon, 1921 

"Until now we used to say that the Greeks fight like heroes.
Now we shall say: That heroes fight like Greeks."  Winston Churchill

27 January 2015

Robert Johnson: Davos Man Fears Social Instability Due to Inequality and Injustice


"No country, however rich, can afford the waste of its human resources. Demoralization caused by vast unemployment is our greatest extravagance. Morally, it is the greatest menace to our social order."
September 30, 1934

"We must scrupulously guard the civil rights and civil liberties of all our citizens, whatever their background. We must remember that any oppression, any injustice, any hatred, is a wedge designed to attack our civilization."
January 9, 1940

Franklin Delano Roosevelt


"I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation. We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented...

There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest."

Elie Wiesel


"Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe."

Frederick Douglass, Speech on the twenty-fourth anniversary of Emancipation,, April 1886
 
"Albert Camus, a great humanist and existentialist voice, pointed out that to commit to a just cause with no hope of success is absurd. But then, he also noted that not committing to a just cause is equally absurd. But only one choice offers the possibility for dignity. And dignity matters. Dignity matters."

David Simon
 




Related: 



Remember


“We cannot understand Fascism, but we can and must understand from where it springs, and we must be on our guard...because what happened can happen again...For this reason, it is everyone's duty to reflect on what happened...

Those who deny Auschwitz would be ready to remake it."

Primo Levi, If This Is a Man


"The history of man is the history of crimes, and history can repeat. So information is a defense. Through this we can build, we must build, a defense against repetition...

There is no denying that Hitler and Stalin are alive today... they are waiting for us to forget, because this is what makes possible the resurrection of these two monsters.

Hatred can be nurtured anywhere, idealism can be perverted into sadism anywhere. If hatred and sadism combine with modern technology, the inferno could erupt anew anywhere."

Simon Wiesenthal


"We stumbled on in the darkness, over big stones and through large puddles, along the one road running through the camp. The accompanying guards kept shouting at us and driving us with the butts of their rifles. Anyone with very sore feet supported himself on his neighbor's arm. Hardly a word was spoken; the icy wind did not encourage talk. Hiding his hand behind his upturned collar, the man marching next to me whispered suddenly: "If our wives could see us now! I do hope they are better off in their camps and don't know what is happening to us."

That brought thoughts of my own wife to mind. And as we stumbled on for miles, slipping on icy spots, supporting each other time and again, dragging one another on and upward, nothing was said, but we both knew: each of us was thinking of his wife. Occasionally I looked at the sky, where the stars were fading and the pink light of the morning was beginning to spread behind a dark bank of clouds. But my mind clung to my wife's image, imagining it with an uncanny acuteness. I heard her answering me, saw her smile, her frank and encouraging look. Real or not, her look then was more luminous than the sun which was beginning to rise.
 
A thought transfixed me: for the first time in my life I saw the truth as it is set into song by so many poets, proclaimed as the final wisdom by so many thinkers. The truth--that love is the ultimate and the highest goal to which man can aspire. Then I grasped the meaning of the greatest secret that human poetry and human thought and belief have to impart: The salvation of man is through love and in love.

I understood how a man who has nothing left in this world may still know bliss, be it only for a brief moment, in the contemplation of his beloved. In a position of utter desolation, when a man cannot express himself in positive action, when his only achievement may consist in enduring his sufferings in the right way--an honorable way--in such a position man can, through loving contemplation of the image he carries of his beloved, achieve fulfillment. For the first time in my life, I was able to understand the words, "The angels are lost in perpetual contemplation of an infinite glory."

In front of me a man stumbled and those following him fell on top of him. The guard rushed over and used his whip on them all. Thus my thoughts were interrupted for a few minutes. But soon my soul found its way back from the prisoners existence to another world, and I resumed talk with my loved one: I asked her questions, and she answered; she questioned me in return, and I answered...

My mind still clung to the image of my wife. A thought crossed my mind: I didn't even know if she were still alive, and I had no means of finding out (during all my prison life there was no outgoing or incoming mail); but at that moment it ceased to matter. There was no need to know; nothing could touch the strength of my love, and the thoughts of my beloved. Had I known then that my wife was dead, I think that I still would have given myself, undisturbed by that knowledge, to the contemplation of that image, and that my mental conversation with her would have been just as vivid and just as satisfying. "Set me like a seal upon thy heart, love is as strong as death."

Viktor Frankl, Man's Search For Meaning

 
"Upon her recent passing at the age of 76, I took the opportunity to reread Bubby's memoirs. In four different instances, my grandmother had stood—amid the smoke of the crematoriums, the barking dogs, the trampling boots and swinging clubs—on the infamous 'selection line' at the head of which Mengele and his minions stood, pointing left and right, sentencing some to back-breaking labor, and sending others to the gas chambers. In each of those instances, somebody would come along and say or do something that would change Bubby's fate from certain death to tenuous life. In one such incident, she already had been sent to the line of those marked for death when a man appeared as if from nowhere, physically removed her from that line and shoved her into the other, without saying a word.

Indeed, the miracles and the mysteries of the events of those days abound along with the horrors and the tragedies. In contrast to the vile actions of the "Angel of Death" were the noble and heroic actions of many "Angels of Life" who stood ready to risk their own lives for the sake of saving that of a stranger.

It is thanks in no small part to "Angels" like these, who stepped out from behind their own misery and grief to come to the aid of others, that generations now live on to tell the story. How clearly we see the infinite ripple effects of single acts of kindness and compassion, even if accomplished in a split second..."

Yossi Refson, Angels of Light


"The perpetrators were scholars, doctors, nurses, justice officials, the police and the health and workers’ administration.

The victims were poor, desperate, rebellious or in need of help. They came from psychiatric clinics and childrens hospitals, from old age homes and welfare institutions, from military hospitals and internment camps.

The number of victims is huge, the number of offenders who were sentenced, small."

Commemorative Tablet at Tiergartenstraße 4, Berlin 


"This lack of reaction arose partly because many in Germany and elsewhere chose to believe Hitler's claim that he had suppressed an imminent rebellion that would have caused far more bloodshed. Evidence soon emerged, however, that showed that in fact Hitler's account was false...

The controlled press, not surprisingly, praised Hitler for his decisive behaviour...In a letter to Hull, Dodd forecast an even more terroristic regime. 'The people hardly notice this complete coup d'etat. It takes place in silence...I would swear that millions upon millions have no idea what a monstrous thing has occurred.'"

Erik Larson, The Garden of Beasts


"The inability to identify with others was unquestionably the most important psychological condition for the fact that something like Auschwitz could have occurred in the midst of more or less civilized and innocent people.

What is called 'fellow traveling' [collaboration] was primarily business interest: one pursues one’s own advantage before all else and, simply not to endanger oneself, does not talk too much. That is a general law of the status quo."

Theodor Adorno


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Something for Everyone, a Comedy Tonight


And a cry went up from the people, 'Save us AAPL!'  And so they did, and the people were amazed.
Most absurd sell side comment:  'Maybe the other retailers were doing so badly because everyone was buying the iPhone 6.'
 
Marissa Mayer threw out some new era junk after the bell, spinning off their Ali Baba holdings, and trumping any mundane things like earnings and growth, which YHOO doesn't have.  Time to declare victory, and on to a new enterprise, MM.

The post-Greek elections bravado from yesterday melted away overnight, as Europeans started actually listening to the new Greek government, and their words permeated their psyches.

It did not help that CAT's results and guidance floundered, along with a few others. You can write that off to 'the strong dollar.' Everyone must make sacrifices for the Miles Gloriosus of currencies.
 
The money masters are wondering when they will be able to ravish Greece, and pick her bones, like the sacking of the Parthenon for souvenirs back home.

And then the durable goods orders results came out and the Street went into a swoon.

Gold bounced back nicely after a hit yesterday that could be attributed to both the usual OPEX antics, as well as the general trend to whistle past the Greek elections.

Tomorrow we have another FOMC meeting. My own opinion, for whatever it might be worth, is that the Fed will do nothing about raising rates this year, except to talk about them. They *might* do a symbolic 25 of 50 bp 'one and done,' but this has nothing to do with real tightening, and more with given themselves some room to lower rates when the real economy starts swooning later this year or next.

But even that seems a little less likely in their current playbook with the QE plays on the table. There is so much bad paper, and the opportunity to print even more to make it go away is very tempting, especially with 'the strong dollar' strangling the real economy of real companies and real people.

Gold is flashing a potentially bullish formation. I think the breakouts and key support are pretty obvious, given that it is a 'slanted W' or double bottom formation. But it need to break out decisively to start being active rather than potential.

Once it breaks out, if it does, we will know a lot more about where it might be going, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Have a pleasant evening.